According to Edward Dowd, there are expectations for a recession in 2025, but he questions the timing and accuracy of current economic models. Dowd notes that when adjusting for large gold imports, the GDP reflects a -1.5% rate. He also points out that these models have shown spotty accuracy since the Covid pandemic, suggesting potential political influences in these economic forecasts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 2025 GDP estimate down to -3.7%, with adjustments for gold imports and exports indicating a -1.4% contraction. This significant downgrade from a previous +3.8% growth forecast two months ago underscores potential volatility in financial markets, particularly impacting trading strategies around U.S. economic indicators and commodities like gold.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold imports to the US have increased significantly, prompting the Atlanta Fed to make adjustments. Gold prices have surged by 70% since October 2023, reaching 52 all-time highs in the past 12 months. This trend is atypical outside periods of economic weakness, indicating potential warning signs for traders.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has updated its Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -0.5%, or -2.8% when accounting for gold imports and exports, marking the first anticipated GDP contraction since 2022. This information is crucial for traders as it signals potential economic downturns that could affect market conditions and investment strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has updated their Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -0.5%, or -2.8% when accounting for gold imports and exports. This marks the first anticipated GDP contraction since 2022, signaling potential economic challenges ahead.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has updated their Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -0.5%, or -2.8% when considering gold imports and exports, marking the first expected contraction since 2022.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been adjusted to -0.5% when excluding gold imports and exports. The inclusion of gold shifts the estimate from +3.9% to -2.8% within three months, indicating significant volatility in gold trading impacting GDP forecasts. This adjustment highlights the critical role of gold in economic performance metrics and could influence trading strategies focused on commodities and currency markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been revised down to -0.5%, excluding gold imports and exports. This adjustment is significant for traders as the inclusion of gold changed the estimate from +3.9% to -2.8% over three months, indicating substantial volatility in GDP calculations when factoring commodity flows. This revision could impact investment decisions, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic growth projections (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the recent surge in the trade deficit is heavily linked to exponential increases in imports of oil, LNG, gold, and steel. This has led producers to prepare for an extended trade dispute, indicating a state of panic which could influence commodity markets and trading strategies.